Artificial intelligence, systemic risks, and sustainability
人工智能、系统性风险与可持续性
Author: Victor Galaz（维克多·加拉斯）, Miguel A. Centeno（米格尔·A·森特诺）, Peter W. Callahan（彼得·W·卡拉汉）, Amar Causevic（阿马尔·考塞维奇）, Thayer Patterson（塞耶·帕特森）, Irina Brass（伊琳娜·布拉斯）, Seth Baum（赛斯·鲍姆）, Darryl Farberf（达里尔·法伯夫）, Joern Fischer（约恩·费舍尔）, David Garcia（大卫·加西亚）, Timon McPhearson（提蒙·麦克费森）, Daniel Jimenez（丹尼尔·吉梅内斯）, Brian King（布莱恩·金）, Paul Larcey（保罗·拉西）, Karen Levy（凯伦·利维）
Source：《Technology in Society》2021 Volume67
Abstract: Automated decision making and predictive analytics through artificial intelligence, in combination with rapid progress in technologies such as sensor technology and robotics are likely to change the way individuals, communities, governments and private actors perceive and respond to climate and ecological change. Methods based on various forms of artificial intelligence are already today being applied in a number of research fields related to climate change and environmental monitoring. Investments into applications of these technologies in agriculture, forestry and the extraction of marine resources also seem to be increasing rapidly. Despite a growing interest in, and deployment of AI-technologies in domains critical for sustainability, few have explored possible systemic risks in depth. This article offers a global overview of the progress of such technologies in sectors with high impact potential for sustainability like farming, forestry and the extraction of marine resources. We also identify possible systemic risks in these domains including a) algorithmic bias and allocative harms; b) unequal access and benefits; c) cascading failures and external disruptions, and d) trade-offs between efficiency and resilience. We explore these emerging risks, identify critical questions, and discuss the limitations of current governance mechanisms in addressing AI sustainability risks in these sectors.
文摘：通过人工智能实现的自动化决策和预测分析，结合传感器技术和机器人学等技术的飞速进步，可能会改变个人、社区、政府和私人行为体感知及应对气候与生态变化的方式。基于各种形式人工智能的方法目前已应用于许多与气候变化和环境监测相关的研究领域。在农业、林业和海洋资源开采领域，这些技术的应用投资似乎也在迅速增加。尽管人工智能技术在对可持续性至关重要的领域中受到了越来越多的关注和部署，但很少有人深入探讨其可能存在的系统性风险。本文对这些技术在农业、林业和海洋资源开采等对可持续性具有高影响潜力的行业中的进展进行了全球综述。我们还识别了这些领域中可能存在的系统性风险，包括：(a) 算法偏见与分配伤害；(b) 访问与收益的不平等；(c) 连锁故障与外部干扰；以及 (d) 效率与韧性之间的权衡。我们探讨了这些新兴风险，识别了关键问题，并讨论了当前治理机制在应对这些行业中人工智能可持续性风险方面的局限性。
Keywords: artificial intelligence; climate change; sustainability; systemic risks; anthropocene; resilience; social-ecological systems; automation; digitalization
编译：刘鑫
